Using machine learning to predict antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients: the multicentre ORCHESTRA cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The study aim was to assess predictors of negative antibody response (AbR) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients after the first booster of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. METHODS: Solid organ transplant recipients receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were prospectively enrolled (March 2021-January 2022) at six hospitals in Italy and Spain. AbR was assessed at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), 3 ± 1 month (t2), and 1 month after third dose (t3). Negative AbR at t3 was defined as an anti-receptor binding domain titre <45 BAU/mL. Machine learning models were developed to predict the individual risk of negative (vs. positive) AbR using age, type of transplant, time between transplant and vaccination, immunosuppressive drugs, type of vaccine, and graft function as covariates, subsequently assessed using a validation cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 1615 SOT recipients (1072 [66.3%] males; mean age±standard deviation [SD], 57.85 ± 13.77) were enrolled, and 1211 received three vaccination doses. Negative AbR rate decreased from 93.66% (886/946) to 21.90% (202/923) from t0 to t3. Univariate analysis showed that older patients (mean age, 60.21 ± 11.51 vs. 58.11 ± 13.08), anti-metabolites (57.9% vs. 35.1%), steroids (52.9% vs. 38.5%), recent transplantation (<3 years) (17.8% vs. 2.3%), and kidney, heart, or lung compared with liver transplantation (25%, 31.8%, 30.4% vs. 5.5%) had a higher likelihood of negative AbR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms showing best prediction performance were logistic regression (precision-recall curve-PRAUC mean 0.37 [95%CI 0.36-0.39]) and k-Nearest Neighbours (PRAUC 0.36 [0.35-0.37]). DISCUSSION: Almost a quarter of SOT recipients showed negative AbR after first booster dosage. Unfortunately, clinical information cannot efficiently predict negative AbR even with ML algorithms.

Incidence of Isolated Biliary Atresia during the COVID Lockdown in Europe: Results from a Collaborative Project by RARE-Liver.

BACKGROUND: Biliary atresia (BA) is a rare cholangiopathy where one of the proposed aetiological mechanisms is an infectious viral trigger. Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID) lockdown restrictions were implemented to reduce the transmission of infections. Strictness of lockdown varied across European countries. This study aimed to investigate if there was an association between strictness of lockdown and change in isolated BA (IBA) incidence in Europe. METHODS: We approached European centres involved in the European Reference Network RARE-LIVER. We included IBA patients born between 2015 and June 2020. We calculated the number of IBA patients born per centre per month. The Stringency Index (SI) was used as lockdown strictness indicator. The association between percentage change of mean number of IBA patients born per month and the SI was assessed. RESULTS: We included 412 IBA patients from thirteen different centres. The median number of patients per month did not change: 6 (1-15) pre-lockdown and 7 (6-9) during lockdown (p = 0.34). There was an inverse association between SI and percentage change in IBA (B = -0.73, p = 0.03). Median age at Kasai portoenterostomy (days) did not differ between time periods (51 (9-179) vs. 53 (19-126), p = 0.73). CONCLUSION: In this European study, a stricter COVID-lockdown was seemingly accompanied by a simultaneous larger decrease in the number of IBA patients born per month in the lockdown. Results should be interpreted with caution due to the assumptions and limitations of the analysis.

Evaluation of the Kinetics of Antibody Response to COVID-19 Vaccine in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Prospective Multicenter ORCHESTRA Cohort.

Previous studies assessing the antibody response (AbR) to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are limited by short follow-up, hampering the analysis of AbR kinetics. We present the ORCHESTRA SOT recipients cohort assessed for AbR at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), and within 3 ± 1 month (t2) after the first dose. We analyzed 1062 SOT patients (kidney, 63.7%; liver, 17.4%; heart, 16.7%; and lung, 2.5%) and 5045 health care workers (HCWs). The AbR rates in the SOTs and HCWs were 52.3% and 99.4%. The antibody levels were significantly higher in the HCWs than in the SOTs (p < 0.001). The kinetics showed an increase (p < 0.001) in antibody levels up to 76 days and a non-significant decrease after 118 days in the SOT recipients versus a decrease up to 76 days (p = 0.02) and a less pronounced decrease between 76 and 118 days (p = 0.04) in the HCWs. Upon multivariable analysis, liver transplant, ≥3 years from SOT, mRNA-1273, azathioprine, and longer time from t0 were associated with a positive AbR at t2. Older age, other comorbidities, mycophenolate, steroids, and impaired graft function were associated with lower AbR probability. Our results may be useful to optimize strategies of immune monitoring after COVID-19 vaccination and indications regarding timing for booster dosages calibrated on SOT patients' characteristics.

Protective SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Response in Children With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND: To date, there's no evidence of an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection or more severe COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, whether COVID-19 alters the clinical course of IBD or whether IBD treatment affects the immunological response to SARS-CoV-2 is still under investigation, especially in children. AIM: To assess the serological response to SARS-CoV-2 in children with IBD, and to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the clinical course of IBD. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective study enrolled children (0-18 years) followed-up at the University Hospital of Padova for IBD, who acquired a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 02.2020 and 02.2021. The anti-SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD IgG titer was evaluated at 3 months after infection and compared to that of a control group of healthy children matched for age, sex, and COVID-19 severity. RESULTS: Twelve children with IBD (M = 5; median age 14 years) contracted COVID-19 during the study period. 11/12 patients were under immunomodulatory treatment (4/12 steroids; 6/12 azathioprine; 3/12 anti-TNFs; 2 vedolizumab; 1 ustekinumab). SARS-CoV-2 infection remained asymptomatic in 4/12 children and caused mild COVID-19 in the remaining 8. Mean anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG S-RBD titer was similar between IBD patients and controls (27.3 ± 43.8 vs. 36.8 ± 35.3 kAU/L, p = ns). No children experienced IBD flares nor required gastroenterological support during the infection period. DISCUSSION: Children with IBD can mount a protective humoral response against SARS-CoV-2, which is comparable to that of their healthy peers regardless of ongoing immunomodulatory treatment. This study also supports the favorable course of PIBD during COVID-19 and vice-versa.

Pediatric transplantation in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic: Early impact on activity and healthcare.

The current pandemic SARS-CoV-2 has required an unusual allocation of resources that can negatively impact chronically ill patients and high-complexity procedures. Across the European Reference Network on Pediatric Transplantation (ERN TransplantChild), we conducted a survey to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on pediatric transplant activity and healthcare practices in both solid organ transplantation (SOT) and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). The replies of 30 professionals from 18 centers in Europe were collected. Twelve of 18 centers (67%) showed a reduction in their usual transplant activity. Additionally, outpatient visits have been modified and restricted to selected ones, and the use of telemedicine tools has increased. Additionally, a total of 14 COVID-19 pediatric transplanted patients were identified at the time of the survey, including eight transplant recipients and six candidates for transplantation. Only two moderate-severe cases were reported, both in HSCT setting. These survey results demonstrate the limitations in healthcare resources for pediatric transplantation patients during early stages of this pandemic. COVID-19 disease is a major worldwide challenge for the field of pediatric transplantation, where there will be a need for systematic data collection, encouraging regular discussions to address the long-term consequences for pediatric transplantation candidates, recipients, and their families.